Project objective:

Development and study of model-algorithmic support for automation and intellectualization of the integrated modeling of the operational processes of natural and natural-technical objects on the basis of qualimetry of models and polymodel complexes; its realization through the creation of a prototype of a system for operational polymodel forecasting of river floods concerning the river basin of the Northern Dvina River.

Development of the theory for multi-criteria evaluation, analysis, arrangement and situational choice of the most preferred models and polymodel systems (qualimetry of models and polymodel systems) is planned to be perform in the project. In addition, it is necessary to create software tools for automation and intellectualization to solve the problems of selecting and adjusting parameters of the corresponding models and polymodel systems, depending on the goals of modeling and the current situation. These tasks will be studied within the framework of the given project.

Planned theoretical developments are a new scientific direction of qualimetry of models and polymodel systems and are expected to create a fundamental scientific basis for the construction and operation of systems for automated modeling and forecasting of NNTOs states.

It is planned to implement the proposed approach through the example of polymodel forecasting of river floods with the creation of a fully functional and fully automated software prototype of the system of operational polymodel forecasting. To create a system prototype which has no analogues in Russia and abroad, we plan to develop and use an adapted range of Russian and European hydrological and hydrodynamic models; an intelligent interface for automatic selection of the type and setting parameters of models; a complex of methodologies and software tools for integration of ground-aerospace source data from the existing global resources and services, as well as mobile services for providing users with the results.

We plan to test the system for the flood forecasting in the basin of the Northern Dvina River, as in this region floods frequently occur.